We Dig, They Win: How Africa's Raw Mineral Exports and Currency Chaos Are Undermining a Just Transition

Every day, truckloads of lithium, cobalt, and manganese leave African soil headed for China, Europe, and North America. These are the building blocks of the energy transition—used in solar panels, electric vehicles, and battery storage.

Yet most of these minerals are exported raw. No refining. No processing. No real jobs. Just royalties.

This is how Africa is participating in the green economy. We dig, they win.

And now, even when investors want to set up processing plants here, there's a new monster in the room: currency volatility.

The Currency Crisis No One Is Talking About

I’ve spoken with investors—big and small—interested in refining minerals in Nigeria, Zambia, and the DRC. The same fear keeps coming up:

"Vincent, if we invest $10 million today and the naira crashes tomorrow, we lose half our money overnight."

This isn’t fiction. In Nigeria, the naira lost over 60% of its value in less than a year. Between June 2023 and early 2024, it went from N460/$1 to over N1,400/$1 in the official market. That kind of swing can obliterate profit margins and stall investment before it begins.

Why This Matters

Without local processing, Africa remains a raw material outpost in a trillion-dollar clean energy economy. We export lithium; we import batteries. We export bauxite; we import solar panels. The real value is being captured elsewhere.

Read also: Batteries for the West, Burdens for Africa

This isn't just bad economics—it’s a betrayal of our youth, our workforce, and our development potential.

Currency risk has now joined the usual suspects—poor infrastructure, inconsistent regulation, and power shortages—as reasons why Africa isn’t adding value to its minerals.

What Civil Society Is Demanding

We in the civil society space aren’t against foreign investors—we welcome them. But we are demanding smarter deals, and we are raising our voices:

• Refine at least part of the minerals here.
• Build local supply chains.
• Share technology and upskill local workers.

We’re also calling on African governments to:

• Hedge against currency volatility to de-risk industrial investment (e.g., stabilize forex for strategic sectors).
• Create Special Economic Zones with guaranteed power, stable regulation, and tax incentives for mineral processing.
• Develop a pan-African mineral value addition strategy, coordinated through the African Union.

Is It Feasible? Absolutely—But Not Without Reform

Countries like Indonesia banned raw nickel exports, forcing processing to happen locally. The result? A booming downstream sector. China controls over 80% of refining not because of natural resources, but because of policy alignment.

We can do this too. But not with chaotic exchange rates and short-term policymaking.

The Bottom Line

Africa’s energy transition can’t run on exported dust and borrowed technology.

If we want to move from digging to designing, from extracting to empowering, we must fix what’s driving investors away—starting with our currencies.

We’re not asking for miracles. We’re asking for justice. Value. And leadership.

Because the real minerals we need aren’t just underground—they’re policy, vision, and courage.

Explore more: Leapfrogging to Renewables: Ensuring Africa’s Transition Leaves No One Behind